Market Regime: Rising, Falling or Sideways

The same stock can read differently when the whole market is rising or falling. That is why FoudaLens sets a market regime from the EGX30 index and uses it as a layer of caution on top of a stock's signal.

What you will learn

Know the five market regimes and how each is set.
Understand what the regime changes in the adjusted signal, and what it leaves alone.

How is the regime set?

The calculation takes EGX30's latest close and compares it with two averages: the last 50 sessions and the last 200 sessions. Where the index sits against them, and where they sit against each other, decide the regime.

Extended bullRising

As a bull, with the index over 15% above its 200 average

BullRising

Index above the 50 and 200 averages, 50 above 200

NeutralSideways

Any mixed state between the averages

BearFalling

Index below both the 50 and 200 averages

Strong bearFalling

Below both averages, and the 50 below the 200

Five regimes, grouped into three: rising, sideways and falling.

ExampleThe index is at 30,000, its 50-session average 28,500 and its 200-session average 25,000. It is above both, and the 50 is above the 200, so it is a bull. Its distance above the 200 average is 5,000 ÷ 25,000 = 20%, more than 15%, so the regime is "Extended bull".

What does it change in a stock's signal?

The regime does not touch the Fouda Score or its factors. It is a separate layer that produces a second version of the signal, called "adjusted", and it does two things there: it lowers the confidence shown with the signal in every regime except a plain bull, and it sets a minimum score "Trend Continuation" must reach to stay.

Bull or neutralThe score must be 55 or more.

Extended bullIt must be 65 or more, because the rise is stretched.

Bear or strong bearIt must be 75 or more.

If the score falls short, the adjusted signal becomes "No Signal" with the note "Regime Caution". In the example above, a stock scoring 60 with a raw "Trend Continuation" shows "No Signal" in the adjusted view, because 65 is required.

Watch outThe site shows the raw signal by default, and you can switch to adjusted. Alerts rely on the adjusted one. Check which you are looking at before comparing two stocks.

The regime is also a description, not a forecast. A market can stay extended for a long time, and it can turn at any moment.

See today's regime

The indices page shows EGX30 and its moves, and the signals page lets you choose raw or adjusted.

Indices Signals

Check yourself

1. The index is below both averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Which regime?

Below both with the 50 under the 200 = strong bear.

2. A bear market, a stock scoring 70 with a raw "Trend Continuation". The adjusted signal?

A bear market requires 75, and 70 is short of it.

Summary

The regime compares EGX30 with its 50- and 200-session averages: five regimes, grouped as rising, sideways and falling.
It does not change the score. In the adjusted signal it lowers the confidence and sets a minimum score for "Trend Continuation".
The default view is raw; alerts use adjusted.

Related terms

EGX30 Moving average

Related lessons

Educational content only, not investment advice. Companies and figures in the examples are invented for illustration.